Goodbye artificial scarcity: Nintendo can produce 20 million Switch 2 consoles in first year

TL;DR: Nintendo plans to maximize Switch 2 sales, potentially reaching 20 million units in the first year, according to analyst Robin Zhu. Despite robust production, analysts predict supply constraints due to high demand. The Switch 2 could sell 4.3 million units in the U.S. in 2025, with total sales possibly reaching 80 million by 2028.

Gone are the days of artificial scarcity: Nintendo intends to sell as many Switch 2 consoles as possible, and one analyst believes the Japanese toy-maker could sell 20 million systems in the debut year.

Goodbye artificial scarcity: Nintendo can produce 20 million Switch 2 consoles in first year 10

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Nintendo could ship up to 20 million Switch 2 consoles in the system’s first year of availability. The estimate was provided by AB Bernstein analyst Robin Zhu, who tells Bloomberg that Nintendo has created a substantially robust production/manufacturing and shipment infrastructure specifically for the Switch 2. While not mentioned in the coverage, Nintendo’s supply line network could further point towards the Switch 2 using an 8nm Orin Tegra SoC produced at Samsung Foundry.

If accurate, Nintendo could ship up to 7.87 million more Switch 2 consoles than its predecessor in the same time period. This big cache of hardware is good news for consumers, especially if other analysts are correct in their Switch 2 predictions.

Goodbye artificial scarcity: Nintendo can produce 20 million Switch 2 consoles in first year 21

Japan-based analyst Dr. Serkan Toto warns that the Switch 2 will “sell out very quickly and not be available for months.”

Mat Piscatella, managing director at Circana’s video games segment, likewise says that Switch 2 supply will be tight throughout 2025.

“I’m expecting to see hardware constraints for several months after a significant early demand surge. And units sold will, of course, be dependent upon manufacturing capabilities and will,” Piscatella said on Bluesky.

Piscatella believes that the Switch 2 could sell 4.3 million consoles in the United States throughout 2025 and account for roughly 1/3rd of hardware sales in the year for the region.

Other firms like DFC Intelligence believe the Switch 2 will sell more or less in line with the current Switch system. DFC predicts that the Switch 2 could hit 80 million sales by 2028.

In its first year, DFC predicts the Switch 2 will sell around 15-17 million systems. For reference, the base Switch sold 14.87 million units in its first year.