One analyst expected Microsoft to lose around 6 million Black Ops 6 sales because of Game Pass, but that number might actually be lower.
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Microsoft’s latest bet may have paid off, but we can’t know how well things went without actual figures. The latest gambit sees Microsoft trading short-term sales for long-term ecosystem growth. That’s why Microsoft put Call of Duty, a $31 billion franchise that can sell 25 million games in a single year, onto Xbox Game Pass.
The goal is to grow subscribers and player numbers at the potential sacrifice of game sales–a trend that has punctuated Microsoft’s games business since the introduction of the Xbox Game Pass subscription service. Microsoft has admitted that Game Pass can “cannibalize” game sales, a concept that sees users simply paying $20 to subscribe to Game Pass rather than paying $70 to buy the full the game.
The result is less upfront cash for the potential of longer-term revenues through consistent subscription earnings. The idea is to lease out a digital game to consumers for a lower upfront fee in the hopes of capturing their attention, spending, time, and engagement through a variety of new content, whether it be separate games or new updates for games like Black Ops 6.
Microsoft has said that Black Ops 6’s inclusion on Game Pass is a big success. Black Ops 6 set new opening weekend records, with the game achieving the #1 total players, #1 hours played, and #1 total matches out of any Call of Duty game in a comparative opening weekend period.
The game saw big sales spikes on both PlayStation and Steam, where full game sales were up 60% over Modern Warfare 3.
As per Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella:
“Last week’s launch of Black Ops 6 was the biggest Call of Duty release ever, setting a record for day one players, as well as Game Pass subscriber adds on launch day. And unit sales on PlayStation and Steam were also up over 60% year-over-year.”
Niko Partners analyst Daniel Ahmad has also chimed in, saying that data indicates the higher Steam/PlayStation numbers have helped offset any potential losses from Xbox cannibalization. This could further mean that the replacive effect of users switching to Game Pass over the $70 full game isn’t as substantial as expected from analysts.
“Based on preliminary data I’ve seen it looks like paid unit sales were similar to MW3, with PS & Steam offsetting the decline on Xbox. But the launch into Game Pass added a significant number of players into the ecosystem via Xbox and PC,” Ahmad said on Twitter.
“In other words, they still generated a healthy amount from paid sales and are also benefiting from subscription revenue / larger overall player base.”